subject
Critical Thinking
How to evaluate arguments, weigh evidence, and notice the moves that good and bad reasoning have in common across very different topics.
7 lessons in critical thinking
Deductive and Inductive Reasoning: Two Modes of Inference
A detective stands over a body and announces the killer's name.
4 min · comparison
How Base-Rate Neglect Misleads
A doctor tells you that a screening test for a rare disease is 95% accurate.
4 min · deepening
How to Spot a Hidden Assumption
Consider a short argument you might overhear in a coffee shop: "She went to a top law school, so she'll make a great judge." The sentence sounds reasonable, almost too obvious to question.
4 min · foundation
What an Argument Actually Is — and Isn't
Two people are shouting at each other across a kitchen table. Their faces are red, the volume is rising, and someone watching might say they are having a heated argument. But listen to the actual sent…
4 min · foundation
Why Cherry-Picked Evidence Looks Convincing
Suppose someone hands you a folder containing twelve case studies of people who took daily cold showers and reported sharper focus, better mood, and fewer colds.
4 min · deepening
Why Correlation Is Not Causation
In the summer of 1999, ice cream sales in New York City climbed sharply.
4 min · foundation
Why Smart People Believe Wrong Things
A puzzle sits at the center of modern psychology: the people most capable of reasoning carefully are not noticeably better at holding accurate beliefs about contested questions.
4 min · synthesis